Truth is, every vintage has its challenges. You probably remember posts and articles from numerous people (including yours truly) regarding the tough 2010 vintage in California—lots of cool, damp weather during the summer, punctuated by a couple of nasty heat waves; a delayed harvest. There are fires to worry about every year, El Nino and La Nina weather patterns to contend with.

 So how is 2011 looking so far? It was a wet, cool spring—late frosts in some areas. As recently as early June, the temperatures were ten degrees or more below average in the Sonoma and Napa area, principally because of all the rain. The good news is rain is off the long-range forecast and temps are supposed to run near normal.

 Rain at this time of year can cause problems—the grapes are “blooming,” and rain during the bloom can damage the forming clusters, essentially thinning the crop. Depending on the variety and the vineyard (and where it is in the cycle) this can cause a smaller than usual crop—but fortunately that impacts the quantity, not the quality. If the rest of the season is normal, the biggest impact might be on the timing of the harvest—cooler, wetter springs push back the growing cycle. Later in the summer we’ll have a better idea as to how late, or whether there are any other challenges for winemakers to contend with.

 One thing to keep in mind, though, is that California is a big state and has lots of microclimates. So while Napa and Sonoma may be affected, Santa Barbara might have a great vintage. So whatever you do, don’t write California wines off, no matter what—one thing about challenging vintages is that you often find some pretty incredible wine makers—they’re the ones rising to the challenge and making great wines out of tough conditions.

 It's too early to say for certain if this will be a good year or bad, of course—even with such a challenging start—but for the growers it's never too early to starting worrying. 

 I will update you all at the end of August as the 2011 Vintage progresses.

Ken Amendola